Most pundits are focused on the likelihood of Republican gains in 2014, fueled by an older, whiter electorate and the unpopularity of Obamacare. But the real prize is 2016. If Republicans can’t retake the White House in 2016, conservatives will have little to no opportunity to shape the future of the health-care entitlement leviathan.
And there’s good reason to believe that Republicans will lose in 2016. Here’s my thinking. In the Republican presidential primary leading up to that election, no aspiring GOP nominee will stray from the “repeal and replace” incantation that has become de rigueur among conservatives. To do otherwise will risk being called a RINO: a Republican In Name Only.
So, a repealer-and-replacer gets nominated by the GOP, much to the satisfaction of conservatives. That nominee runs against Hillary Clinton, whose only campaign ad of the year points out that for the 35 million people on Obamacare-sponsored health coverage, you won’t be able to keep your plan under the Republicans. If 70 percent of those 35 million people vote for Hillary, Republicans lose in a landslide.
Republican politicians won’t admit this out loud, but they are well aware of this problem. And they’re trying, with baby steps, to explain that to the voting public.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member