One way we know Warren isn’t the 2008 Obama is the thermometer test. It’s a good way to test a relatively unknown potential candidate’s likability. It asks people (not counting those who don’t yet have an opinion) on a scale from 0 to 100 how they feel about a person. Warren’s average temperature among Democrats nationally was 63.9 in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted in March; that’s behind Clinton’s 78.7. Among all voters, Warren was at 48.6.

In February 2006, Obama was more well-liked among all voters and among Democrats. His thermometer score among Democrats was 73.8, which was slightly ahead of Clinton’s 73.1. His score among all voters was 59.9.

Instead, Warren’s scores look a lot more like Edwards’s in the early stages of the 2008 campaign. He was at 63 among Democrats and 50.8 among all voters, according to Quinnipiac’s survey in February 2006. Both of these are within two degrees of Warren.