Loyalty. Or lack thereof. The problem with provisional governments is that they often don’t inspire much loyalty, especially from their own armed forces. There were reports, for example, that Ukrainian troops handed over those APCs over to the rebels themselves, planting Russian flags on them.
Who would do the shooting? After the massacre on the Maidan in February, the new government in Kiev disbanded the Berkut, the Ukrainian special police who shot at protesters. Many were then publicly humiliated across Ukraine, having to apologize from city stages on their knees. This has created three problems. First, there are rumors that some of the former Berkut fighters, feeling betrayed and embittered—and unlikely to see this government as legitimate—fled to Russia, were outfitted by Moscow, and sent back to fight. Second, in disbanding Berkut, Kiev lost some of its best fighters, then ones that could potentially flush city buildings of special forces. Third, the move created uncertainty in the ranks of the rest of the Ukrainian police and armed forces: if they obey orders to fire now, will they be thrown under the bus later?
Can anyone shoot? The nuclear disarmament of Ukraine in 1994 set the stage of a further demilitarization, one that has only accelerated in the last few years. Compared to the Russian army, the Ukrainian army is outnumbered and under-equipped.
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