The lack of any substantial political vision among Afghanistan’s former warlords is the depressing reality of this election. But if there is a silver lining it’s that the warlords are learning the ins and outs of electoral politics. The dream of power (which in Afghanistan means the potential of fabulous wealth) seems to be stronger than the nightmares of civil wars past.

But after the fiasco of the 2009 elections, Afghans have become increasingly suspicious of the democratic process and very little, short of a clean election and a smooth transition of power, is likely to change that.

Unfortunately, no one expects this to be a clean and smooth process. Voter ID cards have been on sale for months in various cities across Afghanistan, and the tight race between the leading candidates virtually guarantees that no one candidate will win a clear majority, forcing a protracted and politically de-stabilizing run-off.

For the Taliban, the pieces could not be arrayed any more advantageously. A flurry of attacks over the last two weeks of the election campaign have exposed the two main features of their strategy: plunging Afghans into an environment of fear and uncertainty while at the same time not going far enough to stop the vote. A failed election, leading to political chaos and possibly a return to inter-ethnic conflict, serves their interest.