It’s far too early to say a political turnaround is at hand, but for the first time this election year, Democrats are evincing some confidence that they have at least stanched the bleeding.

“It’s changing. If you’ve been around awhile, and I’ve been around awhile, you can sense it,” said Senator Richard J. Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Democrat in the Senate. “You’re not going to turn away seven or 10 million people from insurance coverage — doesn’t work anymore. And then comes Ryan. Thank you, thank you Congressman Paul Ryan, for reminding us what Republicans would do if they had control.”

The Democrats’ newfound confidence may well be premature. Historically, a president’s approval ratings are the primary determinant of his party’s performance in a midterm election. On average, presidents below a 50 percent approval rating have lost an average of almost 40 House seats in midterms. And President Obama’s ratings, seemingly mired in the low to mid-40s, may prove to be more tied to an economy that most Americans say is still in recession than to the health care law that may have turned a corner.

“Even though the Democrats are trying to take some victory lap, it’s very short term,” said Senator John Thune of South Dakota, chairman of the Senate Republican Conference. “The bad news continues. The hits keep coming.”