One way to look at the state of play is to compare it to a year ago. Thanks to Robert Blizzard at the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies, we can do just that. The following chart details the movement between March 2013 and now in states with very to remotely competitive Democratic-held Senate seats. A year ago, 11 such seats were in the Cook Report’s “Likely Democratic” or “Lean Democratic” categories and none were in the “Lean” or “Likely” GOP buckets. Now, three are in the latter and only five are in the former. And the number of “Tossup” races has increased by two.
Democrats’ outlook in Arkansas, North Carolina, Louisiana and Alaska, where AFP has spent big against the incumbents, has diminished. And GOP recruiting successes in New Hampshire and Colorado have added a pair of seats that didn’t look like they were in play a year ago.