However, at this point, with one month to go, the youth contingent would have to be truly massive to get near the 38.5 percent that was originally projected.
Just how massive depends on the total number of signups in March. But to get some perspective, it’s not even mathematically possible for youth signups to get to 40 percent of total signups unless we get at least 912,174 more people to sign up in March — and then, it’s only possible if every single one of those people, including covered family members, is between the ages of 18 to 35.
This is, if course, not likely. Thankfully, as the number of signups rises, the percentage of them that needs to be young adults falls. But even if we assume 3.5 million people sign up in March — theoretically possible, but not what anyone I’m aware of is projecting — 55 percent of them would have to be young to pull the demographics back in line.
A lower target — say, 33 percent — would be easier to achieve. We could hit that even if the signups in March are less than 50 percent young adults . . . as long as at least 2 million people sign up. That’s about 10 percent higher than the December numbers — certainly doable, but I don’t know if I’d call it the most likely scenario.