Another key test in this race is whether flawed Republican candidates can cost the party seats in otherwise-winnable races. Democrats are hoping to make challenging Senate races a referendum between likable incumbents and undefined challengers in red-state races in Louisiana, North Carolina, and even Arkansas with freshman Rep. Tom Cotton. Jolly’s background was about as unfavorable as it gets—a Washington influence-peddler. That was the theme of attacks from Sink and other Democratic outside groups. It’s only one race, but it’s a sign that the national environment could trump the micro-advantages battle-tested incumbents bring to the table.

The results from this special election weren’t the biggest sign of the challenges Democrats face in the November midterms. Obama’s mediocre approval ratings, the nagging unpopularity of the health care law, and the Republican intensity advantage are all leading indicators.

Even more significant are the risks Republican candidates have shown they’re willing to make to take advantage of the promising 2014 environment. Rep. Cory Gardner of Colorado, a famously cautious pol, jumped into the Senate race against a household name, Sen. Mark Udall—thanks to polling showing him running competitively with the freshman senator. Former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie decided to run against the highly popular Sen. Mark Warner in the battleground Old Dominion—after no one else was interested. It’s looking like Scott Brown is close to challenging Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, even though she’s got sterling favorability ratings. Like Jolly, they’re betting they can nationalize the races on the senators’ votes for Obamacare.