Democratic concern about losing that segment of the electorate has largely been papered over by a prevailing belief that key members of that Obama coalition will continue to buttress the party: Hispanics, African-Americans, college-educated women, and young people. But a study by the centrist think tank Third Way argues that the party should be worried because demographics aren’t the destiny Democrats hope they will be.

“There’s too much overconfidence right now,” says Michelle Diggles, the author of the study, which asserts that Hispanic and young voters, in particular, are likely candidates to defect to the GOP in 2016 if the right candidate emerges. Even with the demographic shifts underway nationwide, she says, if the 2004 election had played out in 2012, George W. Bush still would have beaten John Kerry. (The reason: Bush scored 44 percent of the Latino vote.)

That means that crafting a message to pull more white working-class voters back into the Democratic orbit may become more essential for Clinton, if she runs, than it ever was for Obama. And, certainly, Clinton, as she showed in West Virginia and elsewhere, may have an ability to reach those voters in a way Obama never could.

Yes, skin color plays a part, but it’s not the only reason. “In Ohio, race has always impacted the electorate,” says Chris Redfern, chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party. “It impacts the president’s polling numbers. All of us know that; too few of us mention it.”