The GOP’s 2010 experience is instructive. Republicans picked up four Democratic Senate seats in states that Mr. Obama carried in 2008, defeating an incumbent in Wisconsin (won by Mr. Obama by 14 percentage points) and grabbing three Democratic open seats in Illinois (25 points), Pennsylvania (10 points) and Indiana (one point).
These were paired with 2010 red-state victories, with the GOP winning a Democratic open seat in North Dakota (which Mr. Obama lost by nine points in 2008) and knocking off a Democratic incumbent in Arkansas (which Mr. Obama lost by 20 points). In addition, the GOP retained three open seats in states Mr. Obama carried in 2008: New Hampshire (which Mr. Obama won by 10 points), Florida (three) and North Carolina (one).
That as many as 15 Democratic seats might be in play might offset any potential GOP losses in Kentucky ( Mitch McConnell ), Maine ( Susan Collins ) and Georgia (retiring Saxby Chambliss ). Sen. McConnell in particular will face an all-out assault from every union and liberal pressure group that fears his effective leadership.
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