Radical Islamic forces from the South are making deep inroads in Chechnya and other culturally Muslim regions of Russia. The Siberian Far East is a vast expanse of land that is people-poor and resource rich, sharing more than 2,000 miles of border with China, which is people-rich and resource poor. That is a recipe for geopolitical trouble down the road if there ever was one.

But the number one threat to Russia’s sustainability as a unified state is internal: the combination of a demographic time bomb (low birth rates among Slavs and high rates among other ethnic groups), an intractable public health crisis, a failure to modernize its economy, and Putin’s “vertical of power” — a euphemism for authoritarianism — makes efficient, transparent, accountable, and democratic governance impossible.

The more immediate irony, evident in the drama of recent weeks, is that the more Putin tries to strong-arm Ukraine away from the West and back toward a Soviet-like past, the more the Ukrainian protestors hoisted EU flags and pulled down statues of Lenin. When Yanukovich, with evident support from Moscow, resorted to violent tactics against the people-power movement, Ukrainians came together in outrage and opposition — not just to Yanukovich, but to his backer in the Kremlin.

That has now led to a final irony. One key goal of Putin’s foreign policy in recent years has been to prevent Western powers for bringing about regime-change — especially when the regime in question has ties to Moscow. With that imperative in mind, Putin has so far been successful in keeping Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power in Damascus. Yet last weekend, much closer to home — indeed, in the most precious part of the near-abroad — there was regime-change in Kiev.