Ukraine's revolution: A fight the west can't afford to win

But once the patient is out of critical condition and up off the operating table, can Ukraine stand on its own without a lot more European help? Once the revolution is off the front pages and the sense of urgency has passed, European governments will remember that the redesign of the Eurozone and the needs of weaker economies already in the EU must take precedence. Nor do Europeans want an extended fight with Russia, the country that provides 28 percent of the EU’s imported natural gas. It took bloodshed to get the Europeans this involved in Ukraine’s future. What will it take a year from now?

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What about Washington? The Obama administration has the same distaste for the Putin regime that the Kremlin has for Obama, but given Putin’s willingness to insert himself in geopolitical hotspots of US interest—places like Syria and Iran—no one in the White House wants a fight. Let Russia’s energy-export-dependent economy rust, U.S. officials might well reason, but avoid a needlessly costly confrontation.

The US will use its IMF influence to help Ukraine along. But it will also encourage Ukraine’s new government to reach out to former Yanukovych allies in business and politics, reassure the governors and citizens of ethnically Russian-dominated provinces, and maintain a delicate Europe-Russia balance, even if Kiev begins a gradual long-term move toward the West. Even if Kiev resists, the Russians will see that Washington isn’t out to humiliate Moscow. Washington understands that Ukraine still needs Russia, and the pleasure of watching Putin’s frustration grow won’t change that.

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