Putin is winning in Ukraine

Last time Europe faced a security problem of this magnitude was in the Yugoslav wars in the Nineties. For years the West failed to grasp the problem. It is in a far worse state now. The countries that have tried hardest to help Ukraine, such as Poland and Sweden, feel frustrated and exhausted. In the rest of Europe, the appetite for confrontation with the Kremlin, the real instigator of the crackdown, has never been lower.

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The danger now is that, in despair, the West seeks to broker a solution to the Ukrainian problem through a deal with Russia. That will infuriate and disillusion the protesters, stoking extremism and violence. It is hard to imagine a more dangerous message to send to the Kremlin: create chaos in your former empire and the West will then let you dictate the terms of settlement.

Instead, the West should be flexing its muscles. Two policies stand out. One is to bolster the countries that may be next in the Kremlin’s firing line. Georgia and Moldova are both worried that their move towards Europe will incur the same pressure and interference now being experienced by Ukraine. We should support them, and the most exposed countries that are already in Western clubs, such as the small Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

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