In fact, nobody can say for sure why the rate is falling. But the report’s authors, Rachel K. Jones and Jenna Jerman, point to some key indicators. For one thing, there was a notable drop in the rates in several states, such as California, New York, and New Jersey, that had not enacted new restrictions. Indeed, rates dropped in all regions of the country, although the new laws are concentrated primarily in the Midwest and the South. Moreover, most of the restrictive laws were passed in 2011, and the decline was already under way in 2008. Finally, and critically, the decrease in abortions has been accompanied by a decrease in the birth rate, suggesting not that fewer women are choosing to terminate pregnancies but that fewer women are getting pregnant in the first place.

One reason for that trend might be economic—pregnancy rates and birth rates tend to fall when times are tough. But a shift toward more effective birth control does seem to have played a role. Between 2002 and 2009, the proportion of contraceptive users who relied on long-acting reversible contraceptives like IUDs and implants rose from two per cent to nine per cent. That might not sound like much, but, because LARC methods (unlike condoms or the Pill) are more than ninety-nine per cent effective, even a relatively small uptick in usage can have an impact. Particularly noteworthy was the increase in the number of low-income and poor women who use long-acting methods provided by publicly funded birth-control services. According to the report, between 2006 and 2010 “the estimated number of unintended pregnancies averted by federally funded family-planning programs” rose from 1.9 million to 2.2 million.