A formal effort to replace Boehner is now underway, launched by the Senate Conservatives Fund. The group is keeping an online whip list of which members stand where on replacing Boehner and has plans to pressure conservative lawmakers to come out for or against him long before the November elections. Rep. Raúl R. Labrador (Idaho) has said that if Boehner tries to pass immigration reform, “it should cost him his speakership.”

And, there are plenty of Boehner allies who wonder privately why he would want a job leading a conference that doesn’t want to be led — and who see signs that he is planning his exit strategy. “Several of John’s best friends are leaving Congress,” said one high-level Republican well-versed in House politics, noting that Sens. Saxby Chambliss (Ga.), Tom Coburn (Okla.) and Reps. Tom Latham (Iowa) and Doc Hastings (Wash.) are retiring, while Rep. Mike Simpson (Idaho) faces a serious primary challenge. “Senior staff has already departed. He attacked conservative groups — rightly so. And he is looking for plenty of sunshine heading his way.”

Boehner, publicly, has been unequivocal about his future plans. He has filed for reelection to his Ohio House seat and looks like a lock to win this November. In the summer of 2012, he told Bloomberg: “Every two years is a decision about just what you want to do, but I fully expect to remain speaker.”