“Now we have some hard numbers. Humana announced that it expects to tap the three risk adjustment mechanisms in ObamaCare for between $250 and $450 million in 2014. This amounts to about 25 percent of the insurer’s expected exchange revenue. This money is needed to offset losses that the insurer will take as a result of slower enrollment in its ObamaCare plans, and a skewed risk pool that weighs more heavily toward older and less healthy members than it originally budgeted.”

This doesn’t sound like a company that is confident it has priced its exchange policies correctly; it sounds like a company that is confident it has priced its exchange policies incorrectly but is going to have most of its losses made up by the U.S. government. And if Humana — one of the country’s largest and most experienced health insurers — has priced its policies incorrectly, what are the odds that most of the other insurers have done better?