Why an "anti-incumbent" election might be impossible

Approval of Congress is down to 13 percent in January, near its lowest point ever. And although a record-low 17 percent of voters say “most members of Congress deserve reeelection,” 46 percent still believe their own member of Congress deserves another term in Washington.

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That is the lowest level Gallup has found in 22 years of asking that question. But “record low” does not mean “disastrous.” If this is what a bad environment looks like, lawmakers have it awfully good.

It is still 8 points clear of the 38 percent of voters who say their member doesn’t deserve another two years.

Meanwhile, the “reelect your member” number syncs with the ups and downs of people’s willingness to reelect most numbers—but at 17 percent, that figure can’t go much lower. (Neither can congressional approval, another measure that moves up and down at a similar pace.) Unless that relationship frays, 46 percent of people wanting to reelect their member may be as low as America goes. Plus, measuring generic support like this typically understates how well incumbents do when matched against challengers who inevitably have some flaws.

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