The less-good news for the health law’s backers is that the uninsurance rate is still essentially the same as it was in the early months of 2010, when the law passed. And it’s still several points higher than it was late in 2008, just as the recession hit, and when President Obama finishing his first campaign. …

How much of this month’s result is just normal variation? There have been numerous large month-over-month spikes and drops in the numbers over the years, and this month’s dip isn’t far out of the normal range. While it’s unlikely that normal variation explains the entirety of this month’s drop, it may explain some or even most of it.

What happened during the summer of 2013? The uninsured rate jumps all the way up to 18.6 percent, almost a point higher than its previous high, before it starts falling again in the second half of the year.