The good news about 2014 (maybe)

● Household debt is down, wealth is up. The recovery’s weakness has reflected many Americans’ need to rebuild their finances. Having over-borrowed, they repaid debt; facing a collapse in housing and stock prices, they increased savings. All this hurt consumer buying, as income shifted away from shopping.

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But the drag is now lessening. Since late 2008, household debt has dropped about $800 billion, reports the Federal Reserve. Along with low interest rates, this has cut household debt payments (principal and interest as a share of disposable income) to the levels of the early 1980s, says economist Scott Anderson of Bank of the West. Meanwhile, higher stock and home prices boosted household net worth to $77 trillion in September, well above 2007’s $68 trillion.

● The housing recovery isn’t finished. Jason Furman, chairman of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, notes that the underlying demand for new homes totals about 1.5 million units annually. This reflects new household formations of about 1 million along with demolitions and abandonments. Yet, housing starts in 2013 are estimated at only about 900,000. Scarce supply, says economist Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors, has kept inventories of unsold homes at low levels of about five months of sales instead of the more normal six to seven months.

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