This is a testament to the fact that current conditions in the country, and the presence of so many Republican incumbents, make it hard for the Democrats to pick up many seats. In order for that forecast to change measurably in the Democrats’ favor, the economy needs to grow more rapidly or President Obama needs to become more popular, or both. A few more Republican retirements and strong Democratic challengers wouldn’t hurt, either.

To be sure, this positive forecast for Republicans does not presage a “wave” in Republicans’ favor, as we argued in our first post. The National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar took issue with that, suggesting that certain statistics — like presidential approval and the House generic ballot — did suggest a Republican wave. Our forecast has already taken presidential approval into account.

We also estimated a different model that included the generic ballot in lieu of economic growth and presidential approval, relying on the last Gallup generic ballot reading for the elections when these polls are available (1972-2012). If we take the current Pollster average in the generic ballot, the model’s forecast is not much different — a Democratic loss of two seats, and only a 2 percent chance of gaining a House majority. Indeed, even when the Democratic share of the generic ballot peaked during the government shutdown, the model actually forecast no additional seats for the Democrats (and therefore none for Republicans either).