North Korea could be in store for a purge -- and destabilization

First: There is no obvious reason that a purge of the North Korean aristocracy, once begun, should necessarily end with Jang. And if it is open season on Pyongyang royals, Kim Jong Un has ample motive for doing away with a great many of his nearest and dearest. There is his auntie Kim Kyong Hui — Jang’s wife and, until this week, de facto co-regent. There is Kim Jong Nam, his older brother in Macau who has publicly criticized both the regime and Kim Jong Un. Indeed, any number of blood relatives and inner-sanctum grandees could be deemed a threat, or an alternative, to Kim Jong Un’s authority — and find themselves before the latter-day guillotine.

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Second, there is the potential impact on regime cohesion. Up to now, cohesion among North Korea’s elite has been extraordinary. That may help explain why this otherwise failing communist state is still with us when so many others have been swept into the dustbin of history. Faced with the possibility of an impending reign of terror, some royals and courtiers may be so loyal as to offer themselves up on a sacrifice pyramid. But others near the pinnacle of power might interpret the Jang affair as a wake-up call: time to check bank accounts in China; to polish up damning dossiers on those who should go down before them; or even to think the unthinkable about a new and better dictator. After all, once a reign of terror gets started, ending it usually involves replacing the executioner. A concerted if concealed shift in calculations and personal survival stratagems by those at the regime’s core could have unpredictable — even destabilizing — consequences for the state.

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The third implication concerns Kim Jong Un’s judgment, or lack thereof. Does he understand the forces he may have set in play domestically?

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