So certain are they that conventional wisdom is wrong that the piece is headlined, “No, There Won’t be a Doctor Shortage.” Right, and “If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan – period.” Somehow such bold assertions have lost a bit of their luster over the past few months. …

Many of these states have half the number of physicians and two to three times the number of uninsured — and the experience in Massachusetts is supposed to comfort us about physician capacity? These states would more likely have waiting times double those in the Bay State.

Not to worry, say Gottleib and Emmanuel. We will get the Docs to be more productive and supplement them with nurse practitioners – problem solved! Except we are also facing a shortage of nurses, according to the American Association of Colleges of Nursing, especially advanced practice nurses. More importantly, we also have a shortage of professors in nursing schools to train new nurse practitioners. So the likelihood of replacing many physicians with nurse practitioners is exceedingly small.