But it’s still too early. President Obama’s job approval rating seems to have ticked up a few points in the past week, and this trend could well continue into 2014. In fact, there’s even a scenario where Democrats gain a seat or two in the midterms. If Democrats knock off Mitch McConnell and win the open seat in Georgia, rescue all of their incumbents (remember, Republicans have defeated a grand total of three Democratic incumbents in the past 10 years), guide credible candidates to victory in Montana and West Virginia, and can use former Sen. Larry Pressler to split the Republican vote in South Dakota, they could gain a couple of seats. That is a lot of “ifs,” but it required an awful lot of “ifs” for the Democratic gains of 2012 to materialize as well.

Remember, this is all more important for 2016 than it is for 2014. A Republican-led Senate might force President Obama to wield his veto pen, which could change the dynamic in future showdowns somewhat, but that’s about it. But Republican losses seem almost inevitable in 2016, when seven Republicans will be running for re-election in states that the president carried twice. If Republicans break even or, worse, lose seats, the Democrats would have a realistic chance of recapturing a filibuster-proof majority. On the flip side, Republicans probably need to win 53 or 54 Senate seats to feel good about their chances of retaining the chamber in 2016.