Again, things have certainly changed: of the seven Romney states represented with a Democratic senator up for re-election next year, three feature open contests due to retirements. Senators Baucus, Rockefeller, and Johnson, who won overwhelming victories in 2008, have decided to call it quits. Current polling in Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota indicates the Republicans are positioned well to pick up all three. There is always the possibility that the GOP picks a poor candidate to run, but so far Daines, Rounds and Capito appear to be high-caliber candidates facing weaker Democratic opponents.

Of the four remaining Red State Democrats, one is polling underwater, two are in tight horse races, and the last seems only to be benefiting from the lack of a defined opponent. Senator Mark Pryor is currently trailing Tom Cotton, watching his personal favorability collapse along with Obamacare and the virulent reddening of his home state, Arkansas. Senator Landrieu has seen her fortunes crash as Obamacare’s has, though she still edges her announced Republican competition in polling; and Senator Hagan is facing a tossup race against nearly half a dozen possible Republican opponents. Mark Begich, who ousted Ted Stevens in a nailbiter in 2008, is polling ahead of hypothetical GOP candidates, but his state’s’ political makeup and the unpopularity of Obamacare make his current edge a small one.