It’s the end of the year, and Congress is fighting over a farm bill again, which can mean only one thing: ’tis the season for warnings that Americans could wake up in 2014 and suddenly be paying eight bucks for a gallon of milk. But while the prospect of milk doubling in price overnight makes for an attention-getting headline, it’s not what’s going to happen.

First, a quick history lesson: the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is required to buy butter, cheese and powdered milk to set a floor for milk prices. It acts kind of like the Federal Reserve, except instead of setting interest rates, the agency’s actions impact what we pay for a gallon of milk. The formula was adjusted over the years to balance what farmers make with how much consumers pay, and today’s rate expires with the current farm-bill extension at the end of the year.

If Congress does nothing, the status quo will revert back to the original 1949 law — which was based on a complex formula dating back to the pre–World War I era, when the earnings of rural farmers and city dwellers were much closer than they are today, says Marin Bozic, an assistant professor in dairy-foods-marketing economics at the University of Minnesota.