1. The zero option is real. Karzai apparently dismisses the seriousness of a full U.S. withdrawal, recently smirking at the prospect. Washington should now prepare for this option in earnest—both to call Karzai’s bluff and also because it increasingly appears to be the only feasible course. The White House should immediately ask the Pentagon to update its plans, particularly since some officials there have anonymously disavowed the practicality of the zero option. Washington should also begin negotiating expanded access rights in neighboring countries and consider reallocating naval assets in the area to facilitate and compensate for withdrawal of ground forces.

2. All politics is local. Analysts are widely baffled about what now motivates Karzai—perhaps some combination of political and legacy concerns, with a dash of the paranoid and erratic. But if anything will sway Karzai, it is likely domestic political pressure. In Iraq, several spoilers lined up against the SOFA. Afghanistan is different. Outside of the Taliban, the SOFA enjoys much greater local support—including among elders and members of Karzai’s Cabinet, some of whom publicly disagree with his latest demands and have threatened to quit. Washington should stay closely attuned to local political movements and work all back channels to build and amplify support for the SOFA in the coming weeks.