Remember though, it’s not just a matter of getting some of these members to vote for a repeal. They are only relevant if every member in a less-competitive district votes for repeal as well. Ann Kirkpatrick, Steve Israel, Michael Michaud, Lois Capps, and Steve Horsford all passed on the free vote for the Upton bill, despite being in reasonably competitive districts, while members like Matt Cartwright, Joe Courtney and John Yarmuth have pretty liberal voting records and pretty safe districts.
So, realistically, Republicans would probably need five to 10 Democrats in districts even more Democratic than those listed above to vote for repeal. By now we’re really starting to get into the minority-majority districts and white liberal districts. It’s doable, I suppose, but extremely improbable, especially in the face of a likely full court press from the White House and House Democratic leadership.
The Senate presents a different challenge altogether. I was unaware of this, but there are actually 37 states where Obama won 54 percent of the vote or less in 2012. If every senator were up for re-election in 2014, I’d say that Republicans would have a shot there.