Importantly, there is no sign of anyone like Barack Obama contemplating a run. Clinton’s coalition of women, non-college educated whites, and Latinos was just beat out by Obama’s of African-Americans, college-eduated whites, and young voters. All Clinton needs to do is take a little bit of Obama’s 2008 base to ensure his nomination.
The only candidate in my mind who could catch fire, Massachusetts’ Senator Liz Warren, has already declared her support for Clinton. In fact, every single female Democratic senator is behind Clinton. What a difference that is from 2008.
Much of the establishment was actually encouraging Obama to run in 2008. Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid weren’t backing Clinton. Claire McCaskill’s endorsement of Obama in 2008 was particularly memorable. All three of them are now openly pleading for and endorsing Clinton for 2016.
That’s big news because a candidate who clearly wins the “invisible primary” usually takes the nomination. Primary voters can get confused between candidates whose ideology is very similar, so they look to the party elders. It’s how Mitt Romney was able to take down Newt Gingrich in 2012. Clinton will have invisible primary advantage, which she didn’t have in 2008.
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