Well, next time came one year later, and one year later, way too many conservatives once again found themselves shocked by the obvious. The Shutdown Strategy was doomed from the start even though conservatives like myself, Scott Walker, Tom Coburn and Charles Krauthammer agreed with The Wall Street Journal’s editorial page’s early assessment that Ted Cruz’s approach would lead to political disaster. It did, and yet I understand why Cruz and his allies ignored smart conservative advice. It wasn’t so long ago that congressmen like Steve Largent, Matt Salmon, Tom Coburn and myself saw similar political warnings from senior Republicans as a sign of timidity and weakness. And then Bill Clinton cleaned our clocks, got reelected, and put the 1994 Revolution on its heels for good. Two decades later, conservatives wandered into that ambush again.

The costs have been pretty big to the GOP. This shutdown drove the Republican brand into the ground, with only 24 percent of Americans approving of the party’s performance. That may not hurt conservative senators from Alabama or Texas, but it is a nightmare for Republicans representing states like New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. More troubling is just how divided this episode left us. I’m not sure how it happened but the Grand Old Party is now divided in two camps over something as grubby as legislative tactics.