Indeed, going back to 2010, when the GOP took control of the House, nearly everything has gone or more less the Republicans’ way on fiscal issues—they got the Bush tax cuts locked in (except on the highest earners), government spending reduced, and the sequester imposed. Despite Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s efforts to renegotiate the sequester, Obama in effect has conceded he can live with its across-the-board spending levels: In September, the White House announced it would approve a House Republican spending bill that kept the government funded at current levels as long as language that would defund Obamacare was stripped out.

In a longer time frame, all this must be counted as a victory. Increasingly, the tea party is looking like the Bolsheviks to Boehner’s Mensheviks, with the Democrats playing the role of the wobbly czarist regime (despite Obama’s show of toughness this time around). And if you recall, the Bolsheviks—the most zealous, no-compromise revolutionaries, in other words—were the ones who gained the power in the end. What of the polls and the 2014 election? That’s another reason Democrats are declaring victory, of course. Some are even deliriously sensing a possible takeover of the House. But that’s highly unlikely either, along with the much-hoped-for disappearance of the tea party. Remember: The tea-party adherents in the House just don’t care about the polls. At home, in their scarlet-red districts, they’re still beloved. The only thing most of them worry about is whether they are far-right enough to survive a primary challenge. And as long as the current gerrymandered congressional map remains in place, that’s probably all they’re going to have to worry about.

If you’re having a hard time buying this argument, let’s take stock. The Democrats are declaring victory for two reasons. First, they followed a remarkably disciplined strategy that had the president and Reid looking like conjoined twins, both insisting they wouldn’t negotiate until “the government opens and pays its bills.” They got most of what they wanted, in what must be counted as a substantial political victory that will enhance the reputations of both men.