In the House, budget chairman Paul Ryan’s allies tell me he’s leading the talks, and looking hard at a package that would extend the debt ceiling for six weeks and include a handful of conservative provisions, such as strengthening the eligibility requirements for Obamacare and an elimination of the federal contributions for congressional health-care plans. But this gambit is far from policy; it’s more of a contingency plan, should Republicans struggle to craft an alternative.

“A lot of what we do is going to depend on three things: the markets, the Senate, and our next conference meeting,” says a House GOP leadership aide. “We’re working with our members to finalize our plan, and we’re keeping an eye on the Senate. We’re also going to be ready to pass a short-term, six-week bill, should we all need some more time to come together.”

In the Senate, Susan Collins’s plan is gaining traction, especially after minority leader Mitch McConnell endorsed it on Sunday.