Contrary to popular belief, the Romney campaign’s own polls showed it would lose

In “The Gamble,” Lynn Vavreck’s and my new book on the 2012 presidential race, we report that the Romney campaign’s own internal data showed that it would lose. We write:

“One senior Romney strategist told us that his simulations based on the campaign’s internal polls gave Romney an 18% chance of winning by the end.”

This same strategist told us that these simulations never showed Romney being more likely to win than Obama, even after the first debate when the polls narrowed.

This is a very different story than what emerged after the race.