No, Syria is not going to become Al Qaedastan

The strongest argument against their nightmare scenario is that the threat of Al Qaeda violence is vastly more acute with Assad in control of Damascus. The status quo in Syria has Assad and his allies holding onto a significant chunk of territory, with rebels—including extremist groups, some of which are tied to Al Qaeda—also monopolizing various regions. It’s an ideal situation for unruly terrorist organizations. “Syria is worse if Assad is in power,” says Andrew Tabler of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Extremists are happy with the situation now. This disorder is how they thrive.”

Similarly, what is attracting extremists to Syria, and giving them moral and material support, is the battle against Assad’s regime. The reason that some Sunni Muslims, who make up a majority in Syria and who generally oppose Assad’s minority Alawite sect, are willing to put up with hard-core Islamists is that Assad is a common enemy. Syria has not historically been a hotbed for radicals; nor is it known as a center for the type of Sunni extremism that has flourished everywhere from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan. Remember that, in Iraq, where Al Qaeda did take over territory after Saddam Hussein’s fall, even conservative Sunni tribes became sickened by the extremists’ fanaticism and turned against them.

There are other structural reasons why the country is unlikely to become the next Somalia or Afghanistan (in its pre-9/11 period). “Syria still has strong urban centers,” says Marc Lynch, director of George Washington University’s Institute for Middle East Studies. “State authority is unlikely to completely vanish.” Meanwhile, unlike in the cases of Afghanistan and Somalia, Syria is a country of enormous strategic importance. It’s true that regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran will continue to fund their various proxies if Assad falls. But the idea that an extremist-run Syria is going to be completely ignored by the world is unlikely. Israel is right next door, and would not look kindly on Al Qaeda taking any sort of formal power. Nor would the United States. So while the future of Syria is bleak, don’t expect to see Al Qaeda’s black flag hanging from government buildings in Damascus.