Giovanetti, for one, doesn’t share Pierson’s optimism. Like others in the second camp of opinion on Davis, Giovanetti predicts that the Democratic darling will lose — but Republicans might get bloodied in the battle as well. Beating Davis won’t be enough; Abbott will have to beat her handily. If Davis loses by anything less than 10 percent, Democrats will be able to spin it as a victory of sorts, Giovanetti says — and they’ll be right.

Every point Davis trims from the typical Republican margin of victory, he continues, is worth millions of dollars in national fundraising money for Texas Democrats. If she proves that out-of-state investment in the Texas Democratic party pays off, it will be a problem for the state GOP.

“If it gets to a margin of 8 percentage points, then Republicans have a great deal to be nervous about,” says one insider about Abbott’s potential margin of victory.