We on the right can, and will, correctly argue that the shutdown is largely the fault of Senate majority leader Harry Reid and President Obama, for refusing to accept a one-year delay in Obamacare’s individual mandate, or for refusing to compromise on anything else about the program. Obama, Reid, and all of their allies insist that the administration can unilaterally decide which parts of the bill to postpone or suspend. Many in the media will insist it’s all the fault of those Republican bogeymen. It’s possible that a shutdown will hurt Obama as much as it hurts Republicans. But even if the public reaction is “a pox on both your houses,” that doesn’t necessarily improve fortunes for the Right as a whole.

Let’s say the government shutdown goes on for a week. Then what? Is the Republican leverage strengthened? Is the Obama administration’s position weakened? Is the calculation that Obama will accept a delay in the individual mandate after some period of tear-jerking coverage of military families? Two weeks? A month? How does the means (the shutdown) get us to the ends (stopping Obamacare)?