“Suburban women who appear uncomfortable with the increasing power of far-right conservatives in the Texas GOP may be the place to start — they may be ready to be persuaded to make different choices come Election Day,” wrote Henson, who cautions, “The Democrats get a net gain from using recent abortion politics as a launching pad rather than a destination.”
Here’s the math: Texas Democrats typically get a quarter of the white vote, which in 2014 would translate to about 15 percent of the overall vote. Add to that another 25 percent of the vote from Hispanic and black voters, and Davis would expect to get about 40 percent of the vote come November. But if she can raise her share of the white vote to 40 percent, that would bring her up to around 50 percent — enough to win in a state without a runoff and where Libertarians and Green Party candidates siphon off a few points. And the biggest store of unrealized white votes for Davis is in suburbia, where women might be willing to give a Democrat a second look because of, and not in spite of, abortion.
Along with guns and gays, abortion has long been part of the Republican red-state arsenal. But as Texas Republicans abandon suburban women to court Tea Party voters, they create opportunities for Democrats whose abortion positions appear increasingly moderate. If Davis can frame Abbott’s extreme position as restricting abortion access, then Gov. Wendy Davis might not be such a crazy idea after all.
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