Sources in the push for the defunding of the Affordable Care Act see a path to victory that goes roughly like this: Cruz gives an impressive performance on the Senate floor (check), grassroots activists are galvanized by the event (check), there’s an outpouring of grassroots pressure on Republican senators (to be seen), and as a result, 41 Republicans decide to vote against cloture on the House CR (also to be seen).

That means the next two days are a pretty big deal for defunding advocates.

“We have a lot of work to do in 48 hours,” Holler says, “so the difference between this and August recess was that the senators are up here in Washington and sort of isolated from their constituents. So if constituents are able to get through and deliver the message, then I’m pretty sure we’ll prevail.”