Lesson 2: Obama cuts deals when he’s cornered. Throughout the Syria crisis, Obama boxed himself in through a series of missteps. His WMD red line was not planned but a slip of the tongue. He then asked the world to join him in enforcing it — only to see Putin block U.N. Security Council authorization, the British Parliament vote no and NATO decline to help. Then Obama said he would act unilaterally but abruptly reversed course. He announced that he would go to Congress for authorization — against the advice of his staff and without so much as consulting congressional leaders about the chances of success. When Obama found himself on the verge of an embarrassing defeat on Capitol Hill, Putin stepped in and saved him by offering a deal to have Syria disarm. Obama took Putin’s offer because he was cornered — he had no choice.

Republicans do not have Obama similarly cornered — yet. The president is perfectly willing to let the government shut down on Oct. 1 and blame the GOP. What he cannot do is let the government default — because, as then-Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told Obama in 2011, the consequences of default “would be indelible, incurable. It would last for generations.” Republicans have no leverage in a government shutdown standoff, but in a debt-limit standoff they do. That is where they should take their stand.