Whatever the Obama strategy in Syria is, it is missing a critical question: what happens next? Few chemical weapons experts can envision a way to secure Assad’s weapons stockpiles without thousands of troops on the ground.And it remains unclear how the delicate balancing of two negatives that Obama has pursued to assiduously can result in any favorable outcome.

If one thing seems clear, it is that whomever wins the current phase of the war — and it could be either side right now — will face a second phase, one that will almost certainly be bloodier and more brutal. The normal C2 (Command and Control) systems that have provided some minimal control for the rebel groups are breaking down and being displaced by radicalized jihadists. And the Assad regime is increasingly relying on militias, rather than the uniformed military, to carry out the fighting.

The fracturing of Syria’s militants, both pro- and anti-regime, is a terrifying prospect for everyone interested in ever settling the conflict.