He cites a couple of incidental factors at play here:

1) The debate started while members were scattered to the winds on recess, making it impossible for the White House to do any persuasion in person;

2) The chickens are coming home to roost in terms of the non-existent White House relationship with Capitol Hill. He shared a few stories of the chief White House lobbyist either not knowing key players he should know or not being recognized himself by key players (tellingly, my source doesn’t know his name);

3) Even as the vote is swinging the wrong way, there seems to be no urgency on the part of the White House, which should be in a near panic.