For vote-counting purposes, the most important divide isn’t between hawks and doves. It’s between members in tough districts and safe seats. With military intervention unpopular, few at-risk members are sticking their necks out to support the president, even those from his own party. These members are acutely sensitive to public opinion, and self-survival is often more important than taking one for the team.

Indeed, opposition already is widespread among members in swing districts. Among Democrats, Rep. Rick Nolan of Minnesota accused Secretary of State John Kerry of suffering historical amnesia. Rep. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, who lost several limbs fighting in the Iraq war, was one of the first Democrats to come out against intervention. Rep. Scott Peters of California, one of the most vulnerable Democrats up in 2014, hinted at opposition, citing his constituents’ war weariness. Rep. John Garamendi of California has “deep, deep concern.” Combine that with already strong antiwar sentiment in the Democratic Caucus—about 40 percent opposed the Iraq war resolution in 2002, with a more hawkish caucus and political environment—and it’s a formula for mass defections.

Don’t expect much support from Republicans, either, despite Boehner’s support and the party’s tradition of hawkishness during the Bush administration. Factor in the incentives to oppose Obama at all costs and a rising tide of libertarianism within the caucus, and it’s hard to see a majority of Republicans supporting the president. When Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who generally supports an active American presence overseas, is on the fence, it’s a clear sign Republicans won’t be running to Obama’s aid.