“They were too deferential to the Morsi government and also to the Egyptian military and failed to build constructive relationships with all sorts of other actors inside Egypt,” he said. “And now they are desperately clinging to their relationship with the military, which is hanging by a thread, because they don’t have any other allies.”

Meanwhile, the Egyptian military has good reason to believe it can defy the Obama administration’s wishes with little to no consequences. After they deposed Morsi, the State Department declared they would not make a judgment as to whether it was a coup, allowing the U.S. government to avoid triggering a law that would have mandated a cutoff of military aid…

“One of the themes of the uprising that has carried over from 2011 to 2013 was the notion of national power and dignity, and it was very important for politicians to be perceived as not being in bed with the U.S.,” said Steven Cook, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Also, the stakes were so high that no external powers would be able to influence both sides.”…

“We allegedly have influence but we never used the lever of the influence; so as a result we don’t have any,” Cook said.