But someone needs to rain on the rodeo: Democrats don’t have a chance of snagging Texas in a competitive presidential election any time soon. That’s because Latinos in Texas are disproportionately ineligible to vote. Too many either aren’t citizens or are too young to upend the state in the next few election cycles.

In order to win Texas in the near future, a Democratic presidential candidate would need not just record Latino turnout, but a historic performance with white voters, too.

So when, then, could a Democratic contender have a reasonable shot of moving Texas into the toss-up column? Here’s our breakdown of how long it would take under a few different scenarios, as well as the basic population data that is likely to make the conversion very slow going.