“I have to think the justices — and especially the chief — are very cognizant of the shifting public opinion”

The justices aren’t driven by polling the way elected lawmakers are, but they are often mindful of the court’s credibility. Chief Justice John Roberts, in particular, has shown himself to be an “institutionalist” who wants to protect the court’s legitimacy, Tobias said. That was clear in last year’s decision on ObamaCare.

The political pressures facing the court on same-sex marriage are blowing from several directions, however, making it uncertain exactly how the court will rule.



“I don’t think you can say confidently which way it cuts,” said Tom Goldstein, a Supreme Court attorney and the founder of SCOTUSBlog.

..

On the one hand, any ruling against same-sex marriage would put the justices “on the wrong side of history,” Goldstein said — hardly a position institutional-minded justices want to see themselves.



In last week’s Pew poll, while 51 percent of voters said they support the right to same-sex marriage, a whopping 72 percent said they see it as inevitable.