China, in any case, is still stepping up its assertiveness in the region, and even close allies such as Australia are hesitant over whether they can count on the United States in the future. (A recent defense white paper from Canberra said, “Australia welcomes China’s rise.”) “I think until there’s some money there and until somebody explains how you reconcile [U.S.] ships that are tied up in port and aircraft not flying with a ‘pivot,’ people are hedging,” says Dean Cheng, a longtime Asia analyst with the conservative Heritage Foundation.

The less aggressive U.S. posture is sending other signals to Beijing. Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, said earlier this year that should China’s military be found to be behind computer hacks into the U.S. defense infrastructure, it would not necessarily be a hostile act. Yet a Washington Post report found that designs for many of America’s most sensitive advanced weapons systems have been compromised by Chinese hackers. In response, the U.S. is now proposing … more talks. The administration wants to hold regular negotiations with the Chinese to set standards of behavior for hacking, just as it is now inviting the Chinese navy to participate for the first time in biennial Pacific Rim exercises. “That’s like Eliot Ness approaching Al Capone to say, ‘We’d like to work with you on controlling alcohol,’ ” Cheng says.

Like Beijing, Moscow also has been throwing its weight around somewhat more than usual in recent years — contracting with Assad in Syria to send him sophisticated air-defense equipment. Last weekend, Hagel attended the annual “Shangri-la security dialogue” in Singapore, but the event has been downgraded by China, which sent a lieutenant general, Qi Jianguo, the deputy chief of general staff of the People’s Liberation Army, to head its delegation. Beijing even recently sent a small contingent of troops over the line of control established in 1914 into India. “I think the Chinese are testing us,” Cheng says.