Moscow won’t mind: Assad will rule a Damascus-coastal corridor, where most Alawites live, so Russia will keep its influence and its naval base in Tartous.
Iran’s “Shiite crescent” will remain intact, too — from Lebanon through Assadistan into southern Iraq.
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But Sunnis will control most of the rest of current Syria, giving the Turks, Saudis and Qataris their piece of the action. Kurdistan will be carved out of current Syria and broken Iraq.
Key Sykes-Picot borders will be gone — with Jordan likely teetering and “central” governments in states like Yemen and Lebanon largely impotent.
What are America’s interests in any of this? Doesn’t matter. By opting to sit out, we’ve basically forfeited any say in the outcome.
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