As soon as Rafsanjani declared his intention to run in the upcoming election, he was pressured to back down. Khamenei is right to be worried about Rafsanjani: Rafsanjani is the only candidate with the prerequisite skills, vision, savvy, and popular support to pose a serious challenge should he win the election. He has a developed network of supporters inside the government, the Revolutionary Guards, and the clerical establishment. Khatami has endorsed him, and all major reformist organizations could be expected to support him as well. He has pledged to moderate Iranian foreign policy and resolve the nuclear impasse. He has also declared that Iran is “not at war with Israel,” but would join the Arabs if they declared war. Finally, he has stated that the legitimacy of the supreme leader emanates not just from God but also from the will of people.

As part of the smear campaign to discredit Rafsanjani, Khamenei’s older brother labeled the former president “the best individual for American conspiracy against the Islamic Republic.” To immunize himself against such attacks, Rafsanjani declared that he would run only if the supreme leader did not object — and, reportedly, he has not. It would be difficult (although not unfathomable) for the Guardian Council to now disqualify Rafsanjani. After all, he has consistently held the most sensitive positions in the Islamic Republic, ranging from acting Commander of the Armed Forces to Speaker of the Majlis to the presidency.

Facing a potential challenge from Rafsanjani, Khamenei must also push for his own preferred candidates without actually endorsing them or appearing partisan — the fourth and final part of his strategy. It is an open secret that Khamenei favors the conservatives. He seems to particularly support the Coalition of Three, which consists of Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, a former speaker of the parliament, Mohammad Baqir Ghalibaf, the mayor of Tehran and a former Revolutionary Guard, and Ali Akbar Velayati, a former foreign minister. The three have worked closely with him on a variety of issues over the past few years and are trusted by him. Velayati is the most seasoned among them and seems to be Khamenei’s favorite. He has been a member of Khamenei’s “kitchen cabinet” for a long time. This group faces the twin challenges of chosing their main candidate and then unifying all the conservatives behind that person. After the Guardian Council completes its review of all candidates within the next week or so, Khamenei can rely on the mass media and his surrogates to promote his pick.

Should Khamenei’s strategy succeed, leaving him with the president of his choice, he will further consolidate his control of the government. This will intensify the lingering tensions between the state and Iran’s vibrant civil society, which demands political reform, accountability, and freedom.