A Sanford victory puts that guy in the House Republican Conference. That means that not only do the late-night jokes start again but, more importantly, every GOPer in the House and Senate will be asked whether they support Sanford and what they think of serving with him.

That reality is why the National Republican Congressional Committee essentially washed its collective hands of Sanford once the trespassing revelations went public. The party establishment wanted (and wants) to make clear that they have nothing to do with Sanford. It won’t matter. The narrative that Republicans have a woman problem will have new life — with little the GOP leadership can do about it.

Yes, there is, of course, the opposite argument to be made: That losing a winnable House seat is never a good thing, no matter how many potential problems a Congressman Sanford might create for his party.

True enough. Winning is better than losing. (Statements like that are why the Fix is a Pulitzer favorite every year.) But consider the current state of play for House Democrats: They control just 201 seats, meaning they need to pick up 17 to reclaim the majority in November 2014. A win by Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch in tomorrow’s special election would drop that magic number to 16.