After two air strikes inside Syria in the space of four days, Israel remains intent on targeting advanced weapons there before they can be transferred to Hizballah in Lebanon, Israeli military officials tell TIME. “It’s not over,” says one senior officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because Israel has not officially acknowledged either of the strikes. “This is not the last incident.”…
Israeli military officials say they will likely keep launching attacks, partly because Iran has stepped up the pace at which it’s arming Syria and Hizballah. “They’ve increased the number of shipments lately,” one says. But the strikes are also driven by Israel’s determination to act when it has actionable intelligence. “The problem is intelligence doesn’t always arrive smoothly and on time,” says one military official. The official says “some” earlier generation Fateh-110s reached Hizballah in the past, before Israel could act.
“It’s always a balance: What’s the cost?” says Berti. “Assad was always risk-averse.” But when there were credible reports that Scud missiles had traveled from Syria to Hizballah – and even rumors of chemical weapons, Berti says — Israel took no overt action.
“I think what’s changed today is there’s really this perception that central control is breaking down [inside Syria],” says Berti. In other words, concerned parties still know where to look for the weapons that worry them most. That could change if Assad’s forces are overrun, or simply give up their positions. “Then we’ll have to worry that there is no address,” says Berti.
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