Biden looks like a longshot in 2016, huh?

Fowler said Biden would find it harder to adapt to meet the politics of the moment compared with younger possible candidates, such as Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley or Massachusetts Gov. Deval L. Patrick.

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“Joe Biden has just been around too long to do that again,” Fowler said. “He is himself. And the association with Obama is not going to replace who he is.”

In his first five years as vice president, Biden has carved out an identity with core convictions that appeal to the Democratic base — on gun control, on gay marriage, on women’s rights. He doesn’t shy from speaking his mind; last year, he irked Obama’s advisers by publicly coming out ahead of the president in support of legalizing gay marriage.

Privately, Obama’s White House advisers often knock Biden as an unscripted politician drawn to the spotlight and prone to making gaffes. But what they see as a lack of discipline and polish, voters may admire as refreshing candor, supporters say.

“He’s genuinely witty; he’s spontaneous,” Shrum said. “I think it makes him much more real to voters.”

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Biden is embracing his caricature. His office recently began a series of podcasts on the White House Web site called “Being Biden” that feature the vice president narrating a behind-the-scenes photograph to give fans a taste of his life. Early installments show Biden at his alma mater cheering on the University of Delaware’s Lady Blue Hens in their locker room during the NCAA playoffs; serving dinner rolls at a hunting club’s wild-game dinner; and showing off his West Wing desk to actress Julia Louis-Dreyfus, who plays a vice president in the HBO comedy series “Veep.”

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